2018 early vote poised to largely surpass 2014


Posted on: November 1st, 2018 by ABC News No Comments

iStock/Thinkstock(GAINESVILLE, Fla.) — 2018 early voting could be poised to largely surpass 2014 figures, according to at least one analysis of such data.

Data from nationwide Secretaries of State is compiled by Michael McDonald, an associate professor in political science at the University of Florida who is widely cited as the expert on early voting.

Texas is poised to largely surpass its early voting totals in its 30 reporting counties. 3,695,100 ballots have been cast as of Wednesday morning, compared to 2014’s statewide total of 2,066,368, according to the Texas Secretary of State.

That’s 178.8% of the total vote cast in 2014. In a state with a contentious Senate race with a progressive candidate, Texans may be more motivated to vote as Democrats grip onto hope of turning the Senate blue.

Georgia is following the same trend. 2014 statewide totals came out to 1,069,912. The state has already seen a 155.4% uptick from that number, with 1,662,373 ballots cast as of Wednesday morning, according to their secretary of state’s office.

A close gubernatorial race is unfolding in that state between current Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams. If Abrams wins, she would be the first female African-American governor in the nation.

Kemp, who is backed by President Donald Trump has advocated for stronger voter identification laws and has faced criticism over the more than 53,000 voter applications that were put on hold due to the state’s restrictive “exact match” laws – regulations which require voters’ information on the rolls exactly match their government-issued identification. A coalition of civil rights groups has sued over the law which they say disenfranchises minority voters.

If Abrams hopes to win, she’ll need those votes.

Early voting is underway in all 34 of the states that offer the option.

McDonald breaks down the numbers by state, mail-in and in-person ballots.

Early vote numbers have largely surpassed compared to 2014:

-Total ballots cast as of 10/31/18: 26,090,368

-Total ballots cast as of 11/02/14: 17,000,000

As of Thursday morning, 19 states have surpassed their early vote totals, with 5 days remaining until Election Day. McDonald said on Twitter he estimates more to join this list.

2018 early vote/ percent of 2014 early vote:

Arizona: 103.9% Delaware: 103.2% District of Columbia: 102.5% Florida: 107.1% Georgia: 140.8% Illinois: 108.5% Indiana: 127.9% Louisiana: 125.1% Maryland: 142.0% Minnesota: 106.0% Montana: 107.7% Nevada: 150.4% New Mexico: 103.6% North Carolina: 120.7% South Carolina: 109.5% Tennessee: 183.0% Texas: 162.3% Virginia: 104.0% Wisconsin: 101.0% West Virginia: 101.2%

Early voting is underway in:

Minnesota South Dakota Vermont Wyoming New Jersey Illinois California Iowa Montana Nebraska Arizona Indiana Ohio Georgia Kansas North Carolina Tennessee Nevada New Mexico Alaska Arkansas D.C. Idaho Massachusetts North Dakota Texas Wisconsin Hawaii Louisiana Utah West Virginia Maryland Florida

Early voting began Thursday in Oklahoma.

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